Investors
The revenue picture behind the model, for development-finance and institutional investors: the backing, six modelled revenue lines, and the modelled first-route return. Nothing on this page is a measured result.
The argument for the model is on The model. This page adds what an investor needs beyond it: the backing, where the work stands, and the six modelled revenue lines.
The opportunity
CBS Group backs the model: an Australian infrastructure and systems-engineering business with more than 40 years of experience and more than A$5 billion in projects delivered. The model runs on zero-emission electric hydrofoil vessels using waterways a city already has, in place of new road or rail construction. The vessels are designed to run on more than 80 per cent less energy than conventional ferries.
Where it stands
The first commercial service is in delivery in Sydney, connecting Barangaroo and Rhodes, targeted for commercial launch in Q2 2027 — the first time the model will run commercially at high frequency. A Rio de Janeiro route is in negotiation, and Lisbon, Tri-City and Lagos are under assessment for the same model; Cities has the current status of each.
Four of the five routes now in negotiation or delivery were requested of Water Roads — governments and waterfront developers asking for a service, not responding to a pitch. None beyond Sydney is contracted, and this page will say so until one is.
The revenue lines
No route has launched yet, so nothing below is a measured result — every line is modelled, and each is marked so. Routes are selected against a 40 per cent operating-margin floor; a route that cannot clear it runs only where a government specifically asks and pays.
- Fares (modelled)
- Ticket revenue from operating a route, priced against what a comparable trip currently costs by road or rail. No fare has been charged yet: the Sydney pilot is targeted for commercial launch in Q2 2027, and this line is modelled against the pilot's design, not a result.
- Carbon income (modelled)
- Revenue from carbon credits generated by the modal-shift and ferry-efficiency savings set out in the carbon impact report (see Research, “Carbon and renewables”). The report gives the calculation method and its assumptions; it does not give a credit price or a valuation, and neither appears on this site.
- Environmental index (modelled)
- An environmental-performance index built for verification rather than retrospective audit: designed to measure every trip as it occurs, to ISO 14064-2, Verra VCS and Gold Standard, and not yet audited in service. Distinct from the credits, though it draws on the same carbon impact report.
- Energy (modelled)
- Revenue from the charging infrastructure the vessels use, including as a grid asset when no vessel is drawing on it. None of that infrastructure is built yet.
- Route-creation licensing (modelled)
- A licence fee for the route-optimisation method used to plan a new service, kept separate from the vessels themselves or the running of any one route. Available once a method exists for a partner or city to licence, which beyond Sydney is not yet the case for any route.
- Subsidy, on routes government specifically wants (modelled)
- Available only where a government asks for a particular route and pays against value independently verified after the fact — not a standing subsidy across the network. The mechanism Water Roads proposes for those routes is a value-based fee of $2 per seat; it is a proposal, not a figure any government has agreed.
The modelled first-route return
The strategy case for the first route models a 381.7 per cent return on investment over seven years, about $19.24 million in annual benefit, and around 907,000 trips a year. These are modelled figures, not measured results — no route has launched, and sensitivity work on them is not yet complete. No valuation or funding stage appears here or anywhere on this site.
Earning beyond the routes
Two of the six lines are built to earn beyond the running of routes. The charging infrastructure is modelled to earn as a grid asset when no vessel is drawing on it.
The route-creation method is modelled to earn a licence fee once a proven method exists for a partner or city to take — not yet true of any route beyond Sydney. Water Roads is building both for its own operation first.
The route method (Blue Pathways), the charging system (Deep Power) and the fleet asset-management programme (BEACON) are designed to be sold to third parties as the network matures; material third-party revenue is not expected in the near term. BEACON is a whole-of-life asset-management framework Water Roads runs to protect residual value, offered to operators and vessel manufacturers.
Register your interest
Register interest here; the fuller diligence process happens off the site. Registering commits you to nothing. This is not a public investment portal: the page is for development-finance and institutional or strategic investors, not individual retail investment.
Who this page is for
This page is for development-finance analysts and institutional or strategic investors assessing the model for their own portfolio or market. Investors interested in Water Roads’ Sydney pilot specifically should see the Sydney service.
Research has the technical depth behind these figures. The Sydney service is the working proof of the model, and Platform describes the system it runs on.